jmmx

166 Comments

    • Understanding Valuation Multiples With Respect to Cash [view article]
      How about a chart then
      P/E
      P/E - Cash
      P/EBITDA
      P/EBITDA - cash
      EV/EBITDA
      P/FCF

      Along with share price at end of FQ407.

      Then we could see how they stack up. But since you did not give actual values for these, we cannot see how they compare. My guess is that using the P/FCP and the EV/EBITDA will still give a different number than the P/E.

      Apple has a net margin of 14 or 15 per cent. I am not sure that they get that much on their cash. If they get only 8% on cash, then the P/E will be skewed higher. This is exactly what we have been trying to account for. The method (p/e - cash) may be simplistic, but perhaps it still gives a better valuation than p/e alone.
       Aug 26 04:26 PM
    • Apple Gets Top Marks in Customer Satisfaction [view article]
      Looks like at least one big hedge fund is betting on Apple and tinks RIMM has gone over the edge...

      "Few hedge funds have the track record, heft, and name recognition of SAC Capital

      SAC also added to its stakes in pharmaceutical firms Wyeth (NYSE: WYE - News) and Barr Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: BRL - News), gold miner Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM - News), and Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL - News).

      Meanwhile, the hedge fund trimmed stakes in smartphone maker Research in Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM - News) ..."

      FROM:

      biz.yahoo.com/indie/08...
       Aug 26 11:21 AM
    • What's Up With 3G Performance in the iPhone? [view article]
      Here is article on BB Bold 3G issues.

      www.electronista.com/a.../       Aug 25 10:38 AM
    • Apple Surge Expected - RBC [view article]
      Sounds good to me!!

      But price of $200 - what time frame is that?

      Also - it seems to me that his earnings figures are a bit low. Seems like he is basing it roughly on 14% net margin. But the Macs have a higher margin than the average part of the business. Add to that the additional economies of scale, and I would see a lot more like 0.20 per $1B in sales. That would give us a full $1 extra EPS. (4.2 - 2.9 = 1.3 = 5 x .25; 5 x 0.20 = $1) (roughly) or an extra $30/share.       Aug 21 03:14 PM
    • Apple: Great Company with Lofty Valuation - Due for Pullback [view article]
      @ Ricard

      I appreciate your point of view, but see a couple of things differently.

      1- Apple most certainly IS in the tech business. Their computers ARE tech, the iPods are tech, and the iPhone is tech. Did you just buy a new tie or does your iPhone make calls. It happens to be perhaps the ONLY one in the tech business that really is devoted to the total user experience.

      Partly because they are the only ones who do it, many people do not understand this, and think that it is just fashion. Others appreciate that this is a completely different approach. To make function beautiful does not diminish the functionality - rather it increases it. For example: Robert Maillart made beautiful, graceful bridges. Did the fact that they are gorgeous diminish make them fashion statements and not bridges? Is there anything that a Mac cannot do that a Windows PC can? (You cannot even say run MS Windows anymore!)

      So I am afraid that your "fashion business" statement misses the point.

      2- "Cannot imagine ... where Mac dominates the industry"

      You may be right, maybe Mac OS will never replace Windows OS. What if it only gets 40% of the business market worldwide over the next 10 years. (even 25%). That would be pretty big!

      yes?
       Aug 18 11:50 PM
    • LCA Vision Looks Cheap [view article]
      Fine analysis. Hits the nail on the head. The problem is squarely named: "... once the economic outlook improves." But until there is improvement in the economy, there is not likely to be much improvement in LCAV.

      And when will that happen???

      (longer in LCAV than I wish I were.)


       Aug 15 10:13 AM
    • Should Apple Be Worth More Than Google? [view article]
      Interesting argument, but a few observations:

      1- Of course Google has higher gross/net margins - it has no hardware products. This is one reason why Apple has higher margins than Dell & HP - because Apple has larger software component. So this is not an issue.

      2- Actually, if you look at the Yahoo key statistics page for each, there are several similar numbers. ROE, ROA, Quarterly earnings growth(yoy) & the trailing PE, & Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)

      3- The forward PE, and the PEG ratio favor Google. This, however, is precisely where the issue lies. The forward looking estimates are exactly what many people are beginning to question. The reflect estimates that are old and are likely conservative for two reasons.

      a- They do not really reflect an expected 40+% increase in Mac sales. this has occurred now for several quarters, and some people do not see why it should not continue.

      b- The figures mostly do not reflect the absolutely extraordinary success of the iPhone 3G launch. The iphone sales are a real phenomenon as is the success of the App Store.

      c- Finally, also ignored is the fact that, given the delayed accounting for iPhone sales, that real earnings are not reflected in a current quarter's EPS. Therefore a portion of EPS is hidden. Therefore the *real* PE ratio is NOT what is listed.

      IMHO
       Aug 15 03:29 AM
    • Appetite for Risk? Buy Some RIMM [view article]
      @ sgmsg

      I see lots on 60 M apps downloaded - but nothing on 3 M iPhones. It is, of course, totally believable.       Aug 11 01:47 PM
    • Appetite for Risk? Buy Some RIMM [view article]
      Hayweed has a good analysis.

      I think RIMM did a great thing, and that they will continue to be a significant player in future. They will, however, slip into being a secondary player. If they are really smart, they will recognize this and figure out how they can excel in this role.

      I do not believe I am simply being an Apple "fanboy" here. All you have to do is look at the news from WSJ that Apple has sold/distributed over 60 M applications from its App store. This in the first month of availability!!! Absolutely incredible!

      Furthermore, you cannot ignore the fact that Apple HAS answered most of business's major issues with the iPhone. Sure it will take time for them to switch, and not all of them will, but eventually most will.

      I hate to be a party pooper - but the handwriting is on the wall.
       Aug 11 12:11 PM
    • A Closer Look at the Dollar Rally [view article]
      Really good article! Great analysis.

      It is, however, just a technical analysis, and while I do believe that tech does indicate something about peoples mood and even economic conditions, There IS always still reality out there.

      I am not sure if the US economy is really out of the woods. The huge deficit is still hanging over us, and it remains to be seen if the financial crisis is really over - or is the other foot just about to fall? With predictions that the Republican Recession will be more protracted, I am not putting a lot of faith in a long term dollar rally.       Aug 09 12:51 PM
    • Which CEOs Have the Best and Worst Approval Ratings? [view article]
      Last chance to get aboard the Manzana Express. Soon Apple @ $190 will be history!

      As soon as they let out their new hardware upgrades and release the number of iPhones sold.

      IMHO
       Aug 08 01:52 PM
    • Apple Can Disable iPhone Apps, but Should They? [view article]
      You make some good points here. Pros and Cons.


       Aug 07 01:02 PM
    • The Global Reach of the First Million 3G iPhones [view article]
      @ some_guy & longapple

      You are both right (if my feeble old grey cells serve me right).

      I definitely recall that the original call was for 10M "by the end of 2008." Later, however, this very definitively was "clarified" as 10M IN 2008.

      As for "It remains to be seen..." LOL. If the TechCrunch report is correct, then Apple is shipping about 3.4 M per month. That means they will have 10 M 3G iPhones alone by the end of this quarter!

      Care for a lil wager Jason?
       Aug 06 05:59 PM
    • Research In Motion's 3G Counteroffensive: The Smartphone Arms Race Escalates [view article]
      @ Taher

      So - you going to buy a Mac now?

      :)       Aug 06 01:26 PM
    • Research In Motion's 3G Counteroffensive: The Smartphone Arms Race Escalates [view article]
      SEPT numbers * Aug 06 01:01 PM
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