Daniel Jacome

http://www.cevichefund.com

510 Comments

    • 'Buy, But Sell' - What Are Analysts Thinking? [view article]
      sell side caters more to HFs these days, so they have to cater to very short term thinking as well as their legacy, more traditional buy side clients. You have your SAC Capitals and Fidos of the world of the world -- they are looking at the same stocks and talking to the same analysts: you cant blame analysts for trying to play both sides of the fence all the time -- the business has evolved, for better or for worse, and they're simply adapting. Aug 26 11:58 PM
    • comScore 1, Google 0 [view article]
      Some readers have been emailing me for more color on the EBITDA .76c '09 target -- if you would like a copy of the projected income statement model, please shoot me an email. The image was too large to put into the Word document sent to Seeking Alpha. I'm at dan AT sestinaresearch DOT com -- thanks!! Aug 25 01:26 PM
    • Shoe Carnival Has More Kick In It [view article]
      nice work. Continue to look forward to your Stock Val-filled articles and no nonsense approach : ) - Aug 25 12:01 PM
    • Salesforce.com: It's All About the Guidance [view article]
      "Granted, if a company has high fixed costs, low variable expenses, and any additional revenue flows straight to profit, an analysis of expected revenue growth is important......."

      --------------------


      YES, it does. Thanks, man. That is what I was looking for, some sort of mention of operating leverage. Overall, I agree with you, looking at a P/S over sustained period of time can be dangerous. But they make useful tools in the short term if the company is pioneering in a new indusry, attractive on revenue/EBITDA basic, etc & unlikely to turn a profit in the next couple of quarters....       Aug 25 01:52 AM
    • Digital Ally: Microcap with Explosive Appeal [view article]
      Wall Strip recently did a profile, too.

      www.wallstrip.com/2008.../       Aug 24 01:06 PM
    • Salesforce.com: It's All About the Guidance [view article]
      " A few have suggested looking at the price to sales ratios, but this type of ratio only makes sense when a company can convert the sales to true economic earnings. "
      ----------------------...

      Would you mind elaborating on this?       Aug 20 12:48 PM
    • Hedge Fund Tracking: Tremblant Capital [view article]
      keep up the good work Aug 18 01:33 AM
    • Google Ad Planner vs. ComScore [view article]
      gian and magid will crush google. google cant do everything. if anything, they should buy SCOR before comscore becomes a mid cap. SCORs current valuation is at the high end of where one would want to see these things trade in EV/EBITDA terms, but SCOR has first mover advatange, a proprietary process, and happy customers. The whole story is margin expansion here, since SCOR's infrastructure has already been carved out and the free cash flow spigot is about to turn around full blast. think about it: no debt, strong margins, low working capital needs, low incremental cap x, solid mamagement. this business screams buy me. I dont know what strategy you guys have carved out, but I am liking what I am seeing so far : the M: Metrix deal was sweet -- $44M call option on a low risk, high reward, fast growing segment (mobile media). Aug 18 01:30 AM
    • Skechers: Ignoring Obvious Value [view article]
      Nike wont buy a company with declining sales. Aug 18 01:23 AM
    • Book Review: 'Super Stocks' [view article]
      blah. companies can still manipulate sales too easily to pump the top line and makes themselves look cheaper on a P/S basis. Look at software companies that blew up in the last decade booking revs too early and lets not forget the whole BMY (channel stuffing) scandal. Aug 17 08:32 PM
    • Tween Looks for Justice in Mid-Market Retail Squeeze [view article]
      I dont know this company at all, but are you not worried about those uninspiring EBIT margin trends from 2005-2007? Aug 16 02:43 AM
    • Johnson & Johnson Profit-Taking Likely, Offering Better Entry Point [view article]
      Thanks, User242720!! Aug 14 01:01 PM
    • Appetite for Risk? Buy Some RIMM [view article]
      "The PEG of .43x signals great growth ahead as well with the company moving to solidify itself as #1 in the smartphone market, which in turn should increase free cash flows. "

      hmmm. low PEG could mean the buy side knows sell side estimates are waaaaay too high -- CSFB has some decent research out on RIMM; I'd look at it.       Aug 12 03:01 PM
    • Johnson & Johnson Profit-Taking Likely, Offering Better Entry Point [view article]
      Thank you for your comment -- we do not disagree that JNJ is a solid company with a cash flow spigot that could easily be used to reduce int exp, and thus free up more earnings power. However, we simply wanted to note -- or suggest, better -- that investors may be jumping aggressively into JNJ because of short term uncertainties with the market as a whole. This will likely continue (PMs pushing their analysts to focus on more stable cash flow companies, more recession proof names), but in the long term, which the Street's risk appetite improves, JNJ will see a pullback. Whether that is next quarter (unlikely) or in 2009 (likelier), no one knows.

      Put in a larger perspective: JNJ has outperformed the Dow over the last 30 years. It has approximately moved in tandem with the DJIA over the last 5Y. Over the last 2Y, it has underperformed the Dow. In the last 3 quarters roughly, JNJ has outperformed the Dow by a wide extent (we use 07 as a marker of "credit crisis begins")...

      All we wanted to "throw out there" is that those holding onto JNJ may want to look at their holdings a tad closer and determine if JNJ's run up is fully warranted by its fundamentals. Clearly, our work is the first tiny step (a sprinkle of evidence) in a much larger JNJ project, which may or may not ultimately corroborate what we we found.       Aug 11 03:57 PM
    • Am I Crazy to Own Gannett? [view article]
      "you’ll find out that structural operating cash flow (i.e. CFO before changes in the working capital and deferred tax, my preferred way to analyze a company’s cash power)..........."...
      ======================...

      why? I like the article, but you don't describe why this is the preferred way to look @ CFO. Call me old skool, but where I come from, investment in WC ties us cash. So how do you arrive @ CFO whilst backing these out?

      Aug 11 05:03 AM
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