Richard Schweitzer

149 Comments

    • Several Firms Come to Defense of Fannie, Freddie [view article]
      Changing the dressing of the store windows does not chnage the quality of the merchandise inside. Jul 08 07:36 AM
    • Recommending PriceSmart in Light of Sustained Store Momentum [view article]
      One may be reminded of Peter Drucker's caveats about placing too much on the meaning of EPS.

      Expand this article by analysis of inventory growth related to sales volume; changes in G&A; cash flow[?], etc.



      Jul 08 07:20 AM
    • Fannie and Freddie: Let’s Call the Whole Thing Off [view article]
      Absolutely on target. This would also end one of the most corrupting synergies in politics.

      The impact would be more effective and far-reaching than the proposed "Housing bailout," and have a much lower long-term cost with lower "moral hazard."       Jul 08 07:08 AM
    • Gross Margin Drivers at Potash Corp. (Part II) [view article]
      Oh! and I first learned about the distinct need for Potash working on a farm in DeKalb County, IL. back in the 30's. The lessons apply to most of Iowa and Nebraska as well. Jul 06 09:14 PM
    • Gross Margin Drivers at Potash Corp. (Part II) [view article]
      THERE MAY SOMETHING CALLED THE "ELASTICITY OF SUPPLY" AT WORK HERE AFFECTING THIS INFORMATIVE ANALYSIS.

      PRODUCTION OF NITROGEN AND PHOSPHATE(S) CAN RESPOND RATHER QUICKLY TO INCREASED DEMAND. NOT SO EASY FOR POTASH. IT WILL TAKE A FEW YEARS OF SUSTAINED INCREASES IN DEMAND TO BRING ON NEW SOURCES, THOUGH SOME HAVE STARTED. IT TAKES A FEW YEARS TO OPEN A NEW "MINE."       Jul 06 09:11 PM
    • Beware of Crumbling BRICs [view article]
      If this concerns U S investors with BRIC-related holdings, shouldn't some of the commentary reflect "relative" rates of inflation; using, for example, the true rate of U.S. inflation? (see, Bill Gross and others)

      If the true U.S rate is about 5.3% (being adjusted closer to the "world average" of about 7%) the competitive edge for the PGJ index should increase.

      It is interesting to note that the increase in supply of U.S. Dollars in an open economy, produces lower inflation rates than occur in "command" sytems such as China and Russia. Brazil has become more open and normal. India is a political mess with subsidies distorting the pricing mechanisms.       Jul 03 06:36 AM
    • Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
      How about doing a report on the "quality of Tracking/"

      Or have I missed it?       Jun 26 08:45 AM
    • Global Inflation Rates [view article]
      Incidentally, It does not appear that the median of the list was based on any form of weighting. Jun 22 10:32 PM
    • Global Inflation Rates [view article]
      Correction: Japan IS on this list (next to bottom) Jun 22 10:30 PM
    • Global Inflation Rates [view article]
      Bill Gross had some telling commentary in the June PIMCO Report on the point of an understated U S inflation rate.

      In fact the global inflation rate may be inaccurate.

      Try 7%. A good measure is the number of hours of work (usually at some median wage net of taxes - direct and indirect) is required to obtain the basics of given standards of living.

      Discl: Long YEN futures (Japan is not on this list!!)       Jun 22 10:29 PM
    • Two Emerging Market Steel Plays: Mechel and Siderurgica [view article]
      MTL - "some coal?" If my research is on target, MTL is the largest coal cutter in the world.

      MTL "charts" are still reflecting the split (3-1) and its after effects.

      SID may be getting too vertical for it's managements background, but they will likely bring in some new people for parts of the operations.

      Discl: Long (for quite some time) SID & MTL       Jun 22 10:15 PM
    • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
      Gee, Ishortyou, how many times will you post this same stuff?

      Disclosure: Long MBI - so not antithetical.       Jun 20 08:06 AM
    • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
      Real good today Eli. Jun 19 08:32 AM
    • A Personal Thank You to Momentum Investors [view article]
      Consider:

      Where are the markets (users of) Potash (K)?

      What part of the costs of the users' products consists of costs of K?

      Are new or expanded users of K coming onstream (increasing plantings and acreages - mny marginal acres w/o added K)?

      Are price margins of users products (crops) rising to match marginal uses of K?

      How long does it take to bring on new K sources (8-10 years)?

      Are there any source substitutes for K, as there are for the other two major ingredients of crop nutrients?

      Disclosure: Long,Long POT, MON, JJA, JJG & DE       Jun 18 08:42 AM
    • Mid-Year Picks and Pans From Barron's Roundtable Part II [view article]
      Great comment on Barrons. That's why Eli's winnowing is useful. Jun 18 07:52 AM
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