Health Care Select Sect SPDR (XLV)
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XLV Forum Topics
- All Comments on XLV
- General Discussion on XLV
- S&P 500 Key Sector Relative Strength [view article]
- Performance Since the Dollar's Lows [view article]
- Second Quarter Sector Beat Rates [view article]
- Changes in P/E Ratios During the Current Bear Market [view article]
- A Healthcare ETF Strategy To Outpace the Market [view article]
- Companies With Recent, Innovative Product Approvals vs. Healthcare ETFs [view article]
- Sector and Stock Performance Since Oil's Peak [view article]
- P/E Ratio & Estimated Earnings Growth for S&P Sectors [view article]
- 8 Macro Money-Making Ideas for This Market [view article]
- Buying Healthcare Stocks for an Obama Presidency [view article]
- What If...? Market Contingency Plans [view article]
- US Major Index and Sector Bull/Bear Filter [view article]
loading ...Recent XLV Articles
- Market Performance Review: 8/20/08
- Bespoke's Sector Snapshot (8/20/08)
- S&P 500 Key Sector Relative Strength
- Wednesday Outlook: Bear Attack?
- Tuesday Outlook: Ain't No Sunshine
- Second Quarter Sector Beat Rates
- Performance Since the Dollar's Lows
- Friday Outlook: Ignoring Inflation
- Percentage of Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Averages
- Changes in P/E Ratios During the Current Bear Market
- Full List of Articles »
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Performance Since the Dollar's Lows [view article]
Dollar will be down again, no problem. Energy will be up, along with the precious and platinum group metals. ReplySecond Quarter Sector Beat Rates [view article]
Frankfurt whoever you are - shut up already. Nobody cares that you have the ability to be rude in broken English while repeating more or less the same thing on every site this morning. If you think every contibutor is stupid, then contribute something yourself. Replyng
Performance Since the Dollar's Lows [view article]
fairly clear, selling everything and staying in cash as inflation os booming,looks good for gold Reply
Changes in P/E Ratios During the Current Bear Market [view article]
Close observation of behaviour of p/e ratios is important. Many interesting views has been expressed in the article and comments above. Markmedayski has been brutally frank about the bear eating "investors" alive; I am afraid that if you comb through all the articles in SeekingAlpha in the last month or two on the subject of investment outlook, Markmedayski may be on the mark! or at least it is a possibility we cannot simply dismiss. Dow 9000 by December? chilly enough but who knows? Prieus has just written an article which concluded that under present "treacherous investment waters" we should focus on return OF capital, not return on capital--some wisdom there?? Based on my personal experience I have to agree withWebisking that buying high p/e works only during bull markets. Reply
Changes in P/E Ratios During the Current Bear Market [view article]
As a newcomer to investing, it's hard to to understand the promotion of stock purchases based on a single metric such as P/E, especially in today's irrational market. Sorry! ReplyA Healthcare ETF Strategy To Outpace the Market [view article]
Failing Economy Predicts Worse Health:"...each percentage-point rise in unemployment would result in an additional 1.1 million people losing health insurance"
www.time.com/time/busi... Reply
A Healthcare ETF Strategy To Outpace the Market [view article]
On a related topic, "medical tourism", this addresses the gross inefficiency of the US medical system. It might remind you of a few other industries.www.economist.com/disp... Reply
A Healthcare ETF Strategy To Outpace the Market [view article]
This is just an incredibly irrational market. Financials down 20%, up 30%. Oil up 60%, down 30%. Money rushes into this sector, then that sector. So right now, tech and health are the hot sectors. Anything fundamental going on here? Sure, just like oil went to $147 and back to $115 on "supply and demand". Follow the trend while it lasts, but don't tell me it is anything more than the latest fad, destined to follow the no-longer-latest fads.Healthcare is bloated almost as much as government. They've been the last sectors still increasing employment. Consumers are having an increasingly difficult time paying insurance and medical bills. The sector is horribly inefficient and financially irrational. What do you think is going to happen as more workers lose their jobs, and therefore medical insurance? I just had a not-too-major surgery that was about $3000 after insurance (interestingly, nearly $30,000 before my PPO discount). Many families would find that a serious if not disastrous problem. One of the leading causes of bankruptcy is unexpected medical expense.
The healthcare sector is going to get beaten to death over the new few years between high costs and decreasing ability of consumers to pay for it. A lot of health care is discretionary. Even if you need it, many medical expenses can and will be put off. And speaking of bloated, government at all levels (the #1 addition to employment in the last few years) is going to get crunched big-time by falling revenues. Borrowing only works so long; then you have to actually cut spending. What's that going to do to the healthcare industry?
The hot money will flee tech and healthcare in due time, leaving all the later-coming trend followers holding the bag. Those of you who bought commodities late know the feeling. Reply
Changes in P/E Ratios During the Current Bear Market [view article]
buying high pes ONLY work during bull markets.Of course most everything does. The investor who purchased JNJ last year at 61 dollars witha 15 PE orWMT at 43 with a pe of 16 has combined safety and growth and has outperformed the DOW in the past 12 months by more than 30 percent. Those who bought MO JNJ KO PG MSFT XOM etc in the past year with the PES under 16 will show similar results in 12 months ReplyChanges in P/E Ratios During the Current Bear Market [view article]
We have nothing to fear except the possibility of marxist Obama getting elected. If he wins expect a stampede of stock sales by people trying to pay the 15% capital gains tax as opposed to his proposed 28% capital gains tax. This doesn't take into account the effect other tax increases he wants and his socialist agenda, and the effect it will have on the US productivity and economy.When asked by a reporter why he would increase capital gains taxes, Obama replied that the government needed the additional revenue. When the reporter retorted that was he aware that Bush's tax cuts resulted in more tax dollars pouring into the government, he was totally caught off guard, and replied "well if that is so, it is still only fair"! Welcome to his idea of government, Comrade! Reply
Companies With Recent, Innovative Product Approvals vs. Healthcare ETFs [view article]
but this is hindsightand investment is foresight Reply
Changes in P/E Ratios During the Current Bear Market [view article]
Elaine - 1932 was the 4th year of the great depression, not the first. It was also literally the best time in world history to buy stocks.Baron Rothschild was asked how he made his fortune, over the course of the 19th century. He said "when the streets of Paris are running with blood, I buy". Reply
Supkis
Changes in P/E Ratios During the Current Bear Market [view article]
Prosperity is around the corner! There is no inflation anymore. Alas, this is January,1932 and the end of the first year of the Great Depression.I heard on my radio that now is a great time to buy stocks and properties. So what, if the banks are collapsing? Who cares if the government is going broke? Who worries about all those homeowners not paying the mortgage?
Happy days are here again! We're in the money! 42nd Street, here I come! I want to be in a Busby Berkeley tap dance movie!
Whew. I knew this was a comedy site! As the world slides into a mega-recession, all our trade partners are doing everything in their power to drop the value of their currencies, deny there is any inflation and thus, kill inflation!
So what, if jobs are disappearing. Who cares if wages are falling. It doesn't matter that international trade is going totally cut-throat! Did you hear that the Disney people are making an ALL TALKING/ALL COLOR 'Snow White and the Seven Dwarves'? Technology in action!
We need to fear nothing but fear itself, as Roosevelt said. Reply
McGinley
Changes in P/E Ratios During the Current Bear Market [view article]
"This is definitely a concentrated bear market, where a couple sectors have caused all the problems."Yes, for now. I remember managing client's portfolios in 2001 and thinking, gee this isn't so bad; all the value stuff has helped clients do OK. Of course, then 2002 came around and the bear market arrived in earnest. Reply
Changes in P/E Ratios During the Current Bear Market [view article]
Piece I wrote earlier this week...Multiple reasons to love low US inflation
Without fanfare, global equities markets have gained an unexpected fillip this week, with a development that looks capable of firing a fresh round of sharemarket buying support.
The catalyst is a clear break lower in United States long-term inflation expectations. This can deliver meaningful price/earnings multiple expansion for a market showing signs of wanting to track higher.
Over recent weeks, the S&P 500 has lifted almost 10 per cent, whilst the technology-based Nasdaq has climbed some 13 per cent. Even more impressive has been the recovery in the Value Line Index. This equal-weighted, broad-based equity index is more than 17 per cent off its lows.
This has reversed half of the losses that accrued from the 2007 high.
Whilst to date this recovery has been a stop-start affair, it's demonstrated an investor willingness to look beyond what will inevitably be a sluggish period of global growth over coming months and to focus instead on the expected recovery as 2009 unfolds.
But a fresh impetus has emerged, following a drop to new five-year lows in a reading of the implied long-term level of US inflation.
US 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS, generate one of the best guides to investor expectations for inflation in the US. The "expected inflation" reading is calculated by deducting the yield on the inflation bond from the yield on the standard 10-year Treasury bond.
As oil threatened to break above $US150 a barrel in early July, this closely watched measure of long-term inflation pushed to a two-year high above 2.6 per cent.
But this week, with oil falling sharply, the TIPS inflation reading has dropped back to 2.14 per cent - a level last seen in October 2003.
Inflation expectations have a major impact on equity pricing - in particular a stock's price/earnings multiple. Higher inflation assumptions drive a lower P/E pricing environment, whilst diminishing inflationary concerns will invariably allow market multiples to expand.
Over the past nine months, with soaring energy and food prices raising inflationary expectations, equity markets have been subjected to significant P/E compression.
Morgan Stanley calculates the forward P/E on the S&P 500 at just 12.8 times - compared with more than 15 times in mid-2007. According to Goldman Sachs JBWere, the Australian market multiple is now less than 12 times - against readings of about 17 times in late 2007. These are levels not seen since inflation last spiked in the early 1990s.
But the shift in inflationary expectations over recent weeks has been dramatic. Sharply falling food and energy prices have had an immediate impact on investor thinking. So long as this sentiment shift is maintained, investors will soon take a second look at P/E pricing. And there is much to like about the prospect of market multiple expansion when pricing is already looking historically cheap.
A second positive has emerged over recent weeks. The dramatic recovery of the US dollar is supporting the view that the greenback may be in the process of reversing what has been a savage seven-year bear trend.
This is important as recent analysis has suggested that a strong US dollar is usually accompanied by above-average equity returns.
This may seem counter-intuitive, given the support offered to the US market over the past year by a weaker dollar. Exporters have benefited from a lower greenback, ensuring that net exports have largely been responsible for keeping US gross domestic product growth on a positive trajectory.
But given the long-term nature of dollar trends and the natural propensity for equity markets to rise, on average shares will tend to advance whether the dollar is moving up or down.
So it's the quantum of gains that accrue during periods of US strength or weakness that differentiate the relative appeal of the dollar trend.
US fund manager Bespoke Investment Group has calculated the average return of the S&P 500 during US dollar bull markets is more than 80 per cent. During periods of US dollar declines, the return falls to less than 20 per cent.
Given that equities and the US dollar may be undertaking coincident trend reversals, this prospect of 60 per cent relative trend outperformance bodes well for investor returns.
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