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Steve Hach on ValuEngine Weekly February 25, 2011 Keep in mind that the valuation model and the f...
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JinkoSolar (JKS,$JKS) Declines 22%
Summary of VE Stock Universe
Stocks Undervalued
74.69%
Stocks Overvalued
25.31%
Stocks Undervalued by 20%
37.93%
Stocks Overvalued by 20%
10.13%
Sector
Change
MTD
YTD
Valuation
Last 12-M Return
P/E Ratio
Aerospace
-0.68%
-7.26%
-1.45%
1.86% undervalued
-15.63%
37.47
Auto-Tires-Trucks
0.52%
-10.29%
-2.91%
22.56% undervalued
-19.99%
16.3
Basic Materials
-1.55%
-14.37%
-10.21%
20.67% undervalued
-35.09%
18.06
Business Services
-0.05%
-6.13%
1.78%
10.25% undervalued
-7.42%
25.79
Computer and Technology
-0.74%
-9.19%
3.01%
1.09% overvalued
-16.47%
44.1
Construction
-0.26%
-7.90%
10.25%
4.17% undervalued
-16.00%
39.14
Consumer Discretionary
-0.82%
-7.91%
6.19%
9.49% undervalued
-10.65%
27.01
Consumer Staples
-0.31%
-2.99%
3.94%
4.64% overvalued
-11.80%
24.6
Finance
-0.36%
-5.23%
8.50%
1.99% overvalued
-4.36%
21.46
Industrial Products
-0.27%
-9.07%
-1.23%
0.52% undervalued
-17.72%
18.31
Medical
-0.77%
-6.79%
4.82%
4.14% overvalued
-16.96%
27.39
Multi-Sector Conglomerates
0.11%
-8.17%
2.45%
2.34% undervalued
-11.50%
16.41
Oils-Energy
-0.82%
-12.90%
-11.98%
13.34% undervalued
-29.03%
26.69
Retail-Wholesale
-0.14%
-6.74%
4.84%
4.21% overvalued
1.06%
21.31
Transportation
-0.19%
-7.92%
2.26%
3.23% undervalued
-21.95%
16.6
Utilities
-0.50%
-6.30%
-4.32%
4.02% overvalued
-10.33%
23.09
JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. is a solar product manufacturer with operations based in Jiangxi Province and Zhejiang Province in China. JinkoSolar has built a vertically integrated solar product value chain from recovered silicon materials to solar modules. JinkoSolar's principal products are silicon wafers, solar cells and solar modules which are all along the photovoltaic value chain, with a global network spanning across Europe, North America and Asia.
JinkoSolar Holding Co. was selected by our Diversified Growth Strategy as the primary short pick for the Energy Sector for this month's edition of the ValuEngine Forecast 16 Market Neutral Newsletter. When selected for our newsletter last week, the stock was trading at $5.32/share. As of yesterday's close, the stock was trading at $4.14. That represents a short gain of more than 22%. Chinese solar firms were the subject of a dumping investigation by the US Department of Commerce recently. As part of the resultant penalties, tariffs of 31.18% were imposed on companies like JinkoSolar. The company reports Q1 2012 results on June 20.
ValuEngine has issued a STRONG SELL recommendation for JINKOSOLAR HLDG on May. 23, 2012. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that JINKOSOLAR HLDG has the probability to UNDERPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits UNATTRACTIVE P/E ratio, momentum and volatility.
Based on available data as of May. 23, 2012, we believe that JKS should be trading at $4.67. This makes JKS 11.30% undervalued. Fair Value indicates what we believe the stock should be trading at today if the stock market were perfectly efficient and everything traded at its true worth. For JKS, we base this on actual earnings per share (EPS) for the previous four quarters of -$4.32,
forecasted EPS for the next four quarters of -$1.95, and correlations to the 30- year Treasury bond yield of 2.89%.
ValuEngine Forecast
Target Price
Expected Return
1-Month
3.91
-5.47%
3-Month
3.65
-11.72%
6-Month
3.25
-21.59%
1-Year
2.71
-34.63%
2-Year
2.29
-44.79%
3-Year
2.03
-50.87%
Valuation & Rankings
Valuation
11.30% undervalued
Valuation Rank
46
1-M Forecast Return
-5.47%
1-M Forecast Return Rank
2
12-M Return
-83.16%
Momentum Rank
3
Sharpe Ratio
-0.37
Sharpe Ratio Rank
32
5-Y Avg Annual Return
-46.30%
5-Y Avg Annual Rtn Rank
14
Volatility
126.58%
Volatility Rank
6
Expected EPS Growth
54.76%
EPS Growth Rank
77
Market Cap (billions)
0.09
Size Rank
42
Trailing P/E Ratio
n/a
Trailing P/E Rank
2
Forward P/E Ratio
n/a
Forward P/E Ratio Rank
n/a
PEG Ratio
n/a
PEG Ratio Rank
n/a
Price/Sales
0.08
Price/Sales Rank
95
Market/Book
0.23
Market/Book Rank
95
Beta
4.18
Beta Rank
2
Alpha
-0.78
Alpha Rank
4
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
Rating Gold And Consumer Staples With ValuEngine.com
MARKET OVERVIEW
Index
started week
Thursday Close
4 day change
4 day change %
ytd
DJIA
13228.39
13206.6
-21.79
-0.16%
8.09%
NASDAQ
3060.06
3024.3
-35.76
-1.17%
16.09%
RUSSELL 2000
825.47
806.59
-18.88
-2.29%
8.86%
S&P 500
1403.26
1391.57
-11.69
-0.83%
10.65%
Summary of VE Stock Universe
Stocks Undervalued
61.15%
Stocks Overvalued
38.85%
Stocks Undervalued by 20%
26.74%
Stocks Overvalued by 20%
15.54%
SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector
Change
MTD
YTD
Valuation
Last 12-M Return
P/E Ratio
Aerospace
-1.96%
-1.69%
4.05%
11.45% undervalued
-9.46%
15.53
Auto-Tires-Trucks
-2.20%
-1.41%
8.42%
10.07% undervalued
-11.39%
16.74
Basic Materials
-1.86%
-2.73%
2.23%
8.57% undervalued
-29.03%
21.02
Business Services
-0.96%
-1.27%
7.76%
4.31% undervalued
-2.24%
27.07
Computer and Technology
-1.65%
-1.27%
12.96%
10.77% overvalued
-12.03%
40.17
Construction
-1.29%
-0.83%
18.33%
3.04% undervalued
-12.86%
38.16
Consumer Discretionary
-1.29%
-0.78%
15.97%
2.08% overvalued
-4.22%
27.77
Consumer Staples
-0.76%
-0.94%
6.26%
7.55% overvalued
-9.13%
24.71
Finance
-0.70%
-0.66%
13.93%
10.53% overvalued
-2.35%
23.86
Industrial Products
-1.42%
-1.51%
7.91%
7.47% overvalued
-12.75%
24.03
Medical
-1.03%
-0.82%
11.45%
13.40% overvalued
-13.58%
44.84
Multi-Sector Conglomerates
-0.41%
-0.38%
10.95%
4.14% overvalued
-8.25%
16.92
Oils-Energy
-1.70%
-2.54%
-1.72%
6.24% undervalued
-24.55%
28.35
Retail-Wholesale
-1.32%
-0.71%
11.82%
13.40% overvalued
7.37%
23.22
Transportation
-1.11%
-0.74%
10.23%
5.91% overvalued
-17.21%
16.91
Utilities
-0.75%
-1.80%
0.42%
3.07% overvalued
-7.29%
26.61
Below, we present the latest data on leading Consumer Staples Sector Stocks from our Institutional software package (VEI). These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.
Top-Five Consumer Staples Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns
Ticker
Name
Mkt Price
Valuation(%)
Last 12-M Retn(%)
EL
ESTEE LAUDER
64.15
3.1
34.66
ABV
AMBEV-PR ADR
42.17
22.22
36.78
NWS
NEWS CORP INC
19.99
-9.36
8.23
SWM
SCHWEITZER-MAUD
69.83
-16.18
41.1
BGS
B&G FOODS CL-A
21.75
-10.44
27.57
Top-Five Consumer Staples Sector Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns
Ticker
Name
Mkt Price
Valuation(%)
Last 12-M Retn(%)
EL
ESTEE LAUDER
64.15
3.1
34.66
ABV
AMBEV-PR ADR
42.17
22.22
36.78
PPC
PILGRIMS PRIDE
6.87
14.08
23.34
BGS
B&G FOODS CL-A
21.75
-10.44
27.57
SAM
BOSTON BEER INC
110.65
2
19.96
Top-Five Consumer Staples Sector Stocks--Composite Score
Ticker
Name
Mkt Price
Valuation(%)
Last 12-M Retn(%)
SWM
SCHWEITZER-MAUD
69.83
-16.18
41.1
MHP
MCGRAW-HILL COS
49.25
-24.52
24.84
SFD
SMITHFIELD FOOD
20.27
-26.84
-11.64
NWS
NEWS CORP INC
19.99
-9.36
8.23
RAI
REYNOLDS AMER
40.54
-3.65
14.71
Top-Five Consumer Staples Sector Stocks--Most Overvalued
Ticker
Name
Mkt Price
Valuation(%)
Last 12-M Retn(%)
AM
AMER GREETINGS
15.53
300
-32.27
STEI
STEWART ENTRP A
6.27
300
-20.43
BEAM
BEAM INC
59.92
58.22
-5.8
MNST
MONSTER BEVERAG
67.07
42.44
111.38
HAIN
HAIN CELESTIAL
47.31
40.03
42.2
Mining and Gold
Here are the VE datapoints for buy-rated gold mining stocks:
Ticker
Name
Mkt Price
Valuation(%)
Last 12-M Retn(%)
Forecast 1-Month Retn(%)
Forecast 1-Yr Retn(%)
P/E Ratio
ABX
BARRICK GOLD CP
37.98
-25.37
-21.01
1.9
12.08
7.87
NSU
NEVSUN RESOURCS
3.5
-20.6
-37.16
1.24
12.03
4.73
VGZ
VISTA GOLD CORP
2.86
-53.57
-7.14
1.8
10.1
7.53
JAG
JAGUAR MINING
2.28
-70.67
-56.41
2.64
6.12
11.69
AUQ
AURICO GOLD INC
8.7
-13.84
-12.39
0.94
5.78
11.25
HMY
HARMONY GOLD
9.25
-27.96
-35.81
1.16
6.14
11.86
GFI
GOLD FIELDS-ADR
12.41
-27.45
-24
1.57
10.35
7.05
IAG
IAMGOLD CORP
11.75
-38.79
-39.4
1.15
8.24
10.9
KGC
KINROSS GOLD
8.54
-55.78
-42.18
1.93
9.56
10.29
EGO
ELDORADO GOLD
13.11
-36.46
-21.12
1.19
8.04
19.4
AU
ANGLOGOLD LTD
32.77
-33.69
-31.17
1.75
10.85
7.76
GG
GOLDCORP INC
36.39
-31.26
-28.2
1.67
9.38
16.2
NEM
NEWMONT MINING
45.59
-28.12
-17.26
1.73
10.32
10.02
AEM
AGNICO EAGLE
38.4
-40.47
-39.56
0.74
5.88
22.54
GOLD
RANDGOLD RSRCS
81.89
-23.21
0.15
1.28
8.12
15.79
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
ValuEngine Rates Financials
MARKET OVERVIEW
Index
started week
Thursday Close
4 day change
4 day change %
ytd
DJIA
12977.34
12952.1
-25.24
-0.19%
6.01%
NASDAQ
2969.73
2970.42
0.69
0.02%
14.02%
RUSSELL 2000
801.95
806.34
4.39
0.55%
8.83%
S&P 500
1369.59
1365.91
-3.68
-0.27%
8.61%
Summary of VE Stock Universe
Stocks Undervalued
57.92%
Stocks Overvalued
42.08%
Stocks Undervalued by 20%
23.94%
Stocks Overvalued by 20%
14.32%
SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector
Change
MTD
YTD
Valuation
Last 12-MReturn
P/E Ratio
Aerospace
1.63%
-1.20%
5.78%
2.78% overvalued
-8.01%
15.84
Auto-Tires-Trucks
1.81%
-2.71%
15.53%
2.04% undervalued
-6.86%
29.79
Basic Materials
1.43%
-3.50%
8.49%
1.59% overvalued
-25.10%
26.92
Business Services
1.15%
-0.82%
8.37%
6.56% undervalued
-0.59%
32.27
Computer and Technology
1.06%
-0.81%
12.75%
14.85% overvalued
-12.37%
45.37
Construction
2.02%
0.34%
16.12%
1.49% undervalued
-12.60%
35.74
Consumer Discretionary
1.21%
-0.12%
12.34%
0.21% undervalued
-5.15%
30.55
Consumer Staples
0.80%
-0.42%
7.73%
5.11% overvalued
-5.33%
28.04
Finance
0.77%
-0.38%
10.55%
11.19% overvalued
-4.29%
22.39
Industrial Products
1.11%
-1.36%
10.73%
5.40% overvalued
-12.31%
25.38
Medical
1.14%
-0.40%
10.28%
8.28% overvalued
-9.68%
36.14
Multi-Sector Conglomerates
1.23%
-1.68%
11.58%
4.61% overvalued
-4.25%
18.76
Oils-Energy
0.67%
-2.97%
6.54%
1.59% overvalued
-21.49%
39.05
Retail-Wholesale
1.19%
-0.05%
11.70%
12.25% overvalued
7.17%
21.5
Transportation
1.04%
-1.45%
10.83%
5.10% overvalued
-16.71%
25.28
Utilities
0.69%
-0.35%
2.93%
6.63% overvalued
-1.12%
30.74
Sector Talk-Finance
Below, we present the latest data on leading Finance Sector Stocks from our Institutional software package (VEI). These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.
Top-Five Finance Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns
Ticker
Name
Mkt Price
Valuation(%)
Last 12-M Retn(%)
HXM
DESARROLLADORA
18.48
-58.51
-30.63
BAM
BROOKFIELD ASST
31.12
-35.35
-1.27
NYMT
NEW YORK MTG TR
7.05
-68.03
12.8
KFN
KKR FINL HLDGS
9.27
-17.95
3.23
CRBC
CITIZENS BKNG
13.62
-75
43.37
Top-Five Finance Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns
Ticker
Name
Mkt Price
Valuation(%)
Last 12-M Retn(%)
AEA
ADV AMER CASH
10.42
2.24
107.98
ASPS
ALTISOURCE PORT
61.22
8.68
105.14
BAM
BROOKFIELD ASST
31.12
-35.35
-1.27
CRBC
CITIZENS BKNG
13.62
-75
43.37
KFN
KKR FINL HLDGS
9.27
-17.95
3.23
Top-Five Finance Stocks--Composite Score
Ticker
Name
Mkt Price
Valuation(%)
Last 12-M Retn(%)
SLM
SLM CORP
16.16
-28.21
8.68
CRBC
CITIZENS BKNG
13.62
-75
43.37
FITB
FIFTH THIRD BK
13.48
-26.76
0.63
AXP
AMER EXPRESS CO
52.95
-12.04
18.86
COF
CAPITAL ONE FIN
49.43
-15.93
0.75
Top-Five Finance Stocks--Most Overvalued
Ticker
Name
Mkt Price
Valuation(%)
Last 12-M Retn(%)
MNR
MONMOUTH RE CLA
9.5
300
22.74
RSO
RESOURCE CAPITL
5.74
300
-9.32
TRST
TRUSTCO BK -NY
5.27
300
-8.35
FSP
FRANKLIN ST PPT
10.24
300
-27.07
BKMU
BANK MUTUAL CRP
3.72
300
-13.29
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.