Richard Suttmeier's  Instablog

May 24, 2012 - The Dow Industrial Average tested my annual value level at 12,312.

US Capital Markets

10-Year Note - (1.738) My semiannual pivot is 1.903 with my monthly pivot at 1.734, the Sept 23rd low yield at 1.671 and weekly, quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 1.635, 1.407 and 1.385.

Comex Gold - ($1548.4) My annual value level is $1525.8 with annual and weekly pivots at $1575.8 and 1596.6, and semiannual pivots at $1635.8 and $1659.4. The 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages remain in a "Death Cross" at $1633.0 and $1693.5.

Nymex Crude Oil - ($89.90) My semiannual value level is $79.83 with a weekly pivot at $91.62 and quarterly, annual, semiannual and monthly risky levels at $101.55, $103.58, $104.84 and $108.53. Crude oil is below its 200-day SMA at $96.39. The 200-week simple moving average has been tested for about three years. Today the 200-week SMA is at $81.37. Crude traded to a new year to date low at $89.28 on Wednesday.

The Euro - (1.2582) My monthly value level is 1.2257 with a weekly risky level at 1.2842, and semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 1.2980 and 1.3366. The euro reached a new year to date low at 1.2549 on Wednesday.

Daily Dow:(12,496) My annual value level at 12,312 was tested and held at Wednesday's low. My weekly, quarterly, monthly and annual risky levels are at 12,692, 12,794, 13,354 and 14,032.

S&P 500 - (1318.9) My weekly, quarterly, annual and monthly risky levels at 1329.9, 1337.7, 1363.2 and 1397.0. Weekly closes below 1363.2 proved to signal the downside to 12,312 on the Dow.

NASDAQ - (2850) My annual value level is 2698 with weekly, quarterly, monthly and annual risky levels at 2866, 2911, 3041 and 3232. This week's risk level at 2866 was tested on Tuesday.

Dow Transports - (5067) My semiannual value level is with the 200-day simple moving average at 4937, and weekly, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 5083, 5385 and 5420. The all time high was set at 5627.85 on July 11, 2011. Wednesday's high was just a point below 5083.

Russell 2000 - (765.17) My weekly pivot has been a magnet at 759.03 so far this week. The 200-day simple moving average is at 754.18 with monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 813.56, 829.34 and 836.88. The all time high was set at 868.57 on May 2, 2011.

VE Morning Briefing - If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets go to this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D

Markets in Review: Asian stocks were higher on Tuesday. The Nikkei 225 ended Tuesday at 8,729 - up 1.10%. The Hang Seng ended Tuesday at 19,039 - up 0.62%. European exchanges traded higher again on Tuesday. The FTSE 100 ended Tuesday at 5,403 - up 1.86%. The DAX ended Tuesday at 6,436 - up 1.65%. The CAC 40 ended Tuesday at 3,084 - up 1.88%. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury traded up to 1.803 on Tuesday, well below its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at 2.024 and 2.015, as the decline in yields remains overdone. Gold traded down from $1594.4 the Troy ounce to $1561.0 with the "Death Cross" 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages are at $1636.8 and $1695.6. Crude oil traded down from $93.01 per barrel to $91.40 below its 200-day simple moving average at $96.29. The euro versus the dollar traded down from 1.2818 to 1.2676 below its 50-day simple moving average at 1.3103.

Today's Four in Four Key Levels:
 

1. Yields - The yield on the 10-Year Treasury is below my semiannual pivot at 1.903 with a monthly pivot at 1.734 and the Sept 23rd low yield at 1.671.
2. Commodities - Gold has a monthly value level at $1525.8 the Troy ounce with an annual pivot at $1575.8, a weekly pivot at $1596.6, and semiannual risky level at $1635.8. For Crude oil I show a weekly pivot at $91.62 with the 200-day SMA at $96.29.
3. Currencies - The euro versus the dollar shows a monthly value level at 1.2257 with weekly and semiannual pivots at 1.2842 and 1.2980.
4. Equities - The Dow Industrial Average is above my annual value level is 12,312 with weekly and quarterly pivots at 12,692 and 12,794. The S&P 500 is below weekly, quarterly and annual pivots at 1329.9, 1337.7 and 1363.2. The NASDAQ is above my annual value level at 2698 with weekly and quarterly pivots at 2866 and 2911 - The weekly level was tested at Tuesday's high. Transports stayed below my weekly risky level at 5083. The Russell 2000 closed on the cusp of my weekly pivot at 759.03.
5. ValuEngine Valuations - Stocks remain cheap fundamentally with 75.4% of all stocks undervalued, but keep in mind that on October 4th 93.5% were undervalued. A factor is the low 30-Year bond yield at 2.81%. Ten sectors are undervalued with six overvalued. Autos-Tires-Trucks - 23.6% UV, Basic Materials - 21.1% UV, Oils-Energy - 14.2% UV, and Business Services - 10.7% UV.

VE Morning Briefing - If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets go to this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D

Markets in Review: Asian stocks were higher on Tuesday. The Nikkei 225 ended their session at 8,729 - up 1.10%. The Hang Seng ended their session at 19,039 - up 0.62%. European exchanges opened higher on Tuesday after closing higher on Monday. The FTSE 100 ended Monday at 5,304 - up 0.70%. The DAX ended Monday at 6,311 - up 0.95%. The CAC 40 ended Monday at 3,027 - up 0.64%. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury traded up to 1.781 this morning with a daily chart showing that the decline in yields is overdone. Gold traded up to $1599.0 the Troy ounce on Monday, is no longer oversold and tested my annual pivot at $1575.8 this morning. The "Death Cross" 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages are at $1636.8 and $1695.6. The May 16th year to date low was $1526.7 versus my monthly value level at $1525.8. Crude oil declined from $93.01 per barrel to $91.93 this morning as oil remains oversold, and below its 200-day simple moving average at $96.29. The euro versus the dollar traded down from 1.2828 to 1.2750 with an oversold daily chart.

Today's Four in Four Key Levels:
 

1. Yields - The yield on the 10-Year Treasury is below my semiannual pivot at 1.903 with a monthly pivot at 1.734 and the Sept 23rd low yield at 1.671.
2. Commodities - Gold has a monthly value level at $1525.8 the Troy ounce with an annual pivot at $1575.8, a weekly pivot at $1596.6, and semiannual risky level at $1635.8. For Crude oil I show a weekly pivot at $91.62 with the 200-day SMA at $96.29.
3. Currencies - The euro versus the dollar shows a monthly value level at 1.2257 with weekly and semiannual pivots at 1.2842 and 1.2980.
4. Equities - The Dow Industrial Average is above my annual value level is 12,312 with weekly and quarterly pivots at 12,692 and 12,794. The S&P 500 is below weekly, quarterly and annual pivots at 1329.9, 1337.7 and 1363.2. The NASDAQ is above my annual value level at 2698 with weekly and quarterly pivots at 2866 and 2911. Transports are below my weekly risky level at 5083. The Russell 2000 is above my weekly pivot at 759.03.
5. ValuEngine Valuations - Stocks remain cheap fundamentally with 75.4% of all stocks undervalued, but keep in mind that on October 4th 93.5% were undervalued. A factor is the low 30-Year bond yield at 2.81%. Ten sectors are undervalued with six overvalued. Autos-Tires-Trucks - 23.6% UV, Basic Materials - 21.1% UV, Oils-Energy - 14.2% UV, and Business Services - 10.7% UV.

VE Morning Briefing - If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets go to this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D