Baidu Rockets Higher On New Smartphone [View article]
The iPhone is a overpriced luxury item. Indeed there is a bigger market for affordable smart phones and competition here is needed to make current phones the $50-$70 dollar ones we used before. Technology progresses and also gets much much cheaper. When cell phone competition heats up and prices drop I wonder if Apple will capitulate and lower margins to keep their marketshare. In the past they have just given it up.
Baidu: The Google, Netflix, iPhone, Priceline And Facebook Of China [View article]
The problem with all of these, and the problem with even the article headline is that these Chinese web sales, social media, mobile app companies are directionless blobs slugging it out with no guarantee of a strong or stable revenue source or customer base. Where is the plan? Where is the focus? And do you think the competition will ever go away? I have yet to see a strong management team or a noteworthy strategy from any of these companies. Sure you are investing in China and maybe made money in it. But sadly most of the hype is investing in a company with hot air that has little to no profit.
Top China Technology Picks By The World's Largest Fund Managers [View article]
These are all the high profile companies. What about consistent players like Lenovo, TCL, etc. Forget the glamor and go with the gold in China. Ones that have real assets and clear value.
China Unicom is the only real one of these I'd feel safe parking money. The rest is a casino bet with no idea how viable they will be long term. Baidu was worth considering but their valuation is not a safe bet.
Dangdang: Like Rolling Back Time To Buy Amazon At $6 [View article]
The winner in this category is the one that executes the best. That means management means a lot and, dang you know this company's management is not the best. First movers aren't necessarily the ultimate winners, especially online. I would wait for the more mature better run online sales company to bet on in China.
The author is right in the respect online sales potential in China is huge for the one that does hit it right.
Horrid Action In Chinese Stocks, Even Baidu [View article]
I think the selloff is more due to a big drop in copper showing Chinese manufacturing is down. Apple's cutting iPad orders didn't help either. Some people are saying Chinese growth will slow this quarter. They are right, after September delivery manufacturing growth stalls out unless there is renewed Christmas ordering on underestimating real demand which may not materialize this year.
The Chinese bad accounting scare should not be the root of strong stable Chinese companies. However, if you want to be scared of bad accounting you need only look at US banks. You couldn't tell if a TBTF bank was about to go bankrupt tomorrow with the liberal accounting rules we dish out to banks these days. Perhaps that's the reason BAC is under so much pressure. Bank accounting proves nothing because banks want rules that allow them to hide losses and estimate them themselves without a accounting basis to refute them. This is just as bad as any terrible accounting in China or anywhere else in the world. The US should be ashamed.
5 Growth Stocks That Could Supercharge Your Portfolio [View article]
Growth stocks are great if the economy resumes an upward trend. If the economy continues to falter these stocks risks easily outweigh the upside though. Whole Foods is a great company but they have really not slumped on the downturn yet and may correct if a recession really hits.
Why Gold Is Going To $2,000 An Ounce By The End Of September [View article]
Any easing by government or the Federal Reserve or cancelling/fudging of the deficit reduction plan will make gold rocket up, possibly along with commodities and inflation. The odds of that grow with each weak economic report.
Strangely, the weaker the economy gets the more chances of more stimulus and QE along with greater chances that the US will reach its deficit ceiling before the election due to weak revenues. Expect a lot more fighting and government incompetence that will potentially make things even worse. Pity America.
After-Hours: Going Long on Baidu, Shorting Broadcom and Netflix [View article]
Netflix if it opens under $250 may not fall all that much lower. It seems they are trying to lower the bar so far down they can't help but blow away numbers next quarter.
Sina: Investors Should Be Cautiously Optimistic [View article]
Indeed if the market melts down these bubblicious type stocks with little to no earnings will be first to drop over 50%. If one wishes to be cautious and short term oriented I would not advise this market segment. As for cloud/social media stocks, the US already provides plenty of selection with astronomical price points premised on over 50%, 100% or even 200% growth for 5 years.
If you wish to invest in Asia I would do so to explore RE options, tap their new gas exploration, or invest in their long in the tooth manufacturing. My motto usually is only invest overseas in unique opportunities that country is well known for already or resources specific to that country. China is not known for social media, mainly due to restrictive curbs on free speech (they certainly have the population to support it).
6 Stocks for Smart China Investors to Consider [View article]
I agree Baidu is rich in valuation and the story is well known. I agree that Chinese oil is great and is undervalued. I have a position in CEO and thing the long term fundamentals in these companies will only grow.
When to Move From High-Fliers to High Quality Stocks [View article]
I would tend to agree, high quality would be more like CAT, XOM, SWY, etc. I would tend to call his high quality list more very large caps rather than quality.
Did a Lunchtime Margin Selling Capitulation Put in the Bottom for This Pullback? [View article]
I think in Netflix's case there is compelling evidence about a paradigm change. It's not all technical including the fact Netflix uses Amazon services to deliver to customers and are now competing with them. A lot of longs are closing but we are far from the bottom, especially since this will inevitably hurt Netflix's long term prospects and margins going forward. Netflix better think twice before signing any more super expensive content deals since Amazon will use downloadable movies as a loss leader to gain marketshare, presumable in the tablet market when they come out with a movie centric tablet.
Looking at call volume, there is a lot of action at the stock price showing a lot of hedging is going on. We will have to see about the margin closing theory later. If I was long NFLX I'd be worried and certainly if I was margined I would worry more. However, with its goiant run up I don't see margin calls playing any roll anytime soon unless it drops below $150. I'm sort Netflix as of Tuesday.
China Needs to Focus on 'Soft Power' to Keep Foreign Investment [View article]
China has no problem getting foreign money inflows. In fact their inflation is mainly caused by their undervalued currency drawing in too much foreign currency and a giant trade surplus.
As for soft power, the author is right that China has always been overply protectionist at the cost to their own consumers which is frankly preventing the flourishing of a consumer economy. This is because the powers that be think that if trade surpluses drop it will be the end of the world when in fact it is not. Ttrade surpluses will naturally drop whether they like it or not as low skilled work migrates to lower cost countries similar to what happened to Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, etc.
China needs to soften their own stance on their domestic market to survive. If China blocks competition and foreign goods it will be hard for them to realize the value of global products and appreciate their allure so they can innovate competitive new ones. China tends to be insular thinking that their own internal economy is enough, but frankly this is not so. Global competition will always cause advances to accelerate much faster than any given domestic economy. If it wants to be on top for a long time to come they must realize this and embrace globalization. Otherwise, their rise to relavance will be overshadowed by a failure to move up the value chain.
China has a right to be concerned with the US and other's hard power of trying to thrust their imports on China (beef, Qualcomm, etc.) however, blocking unthreatening competition or all competition is a very poor solution. As for the reason China is amicable to the tech industry, the reason is clear. China gets a lot more from the tech industry than they give up, and they recognize that they need to allow their people to experience technology from all over the world to stay competitive. Hopefully, they will mirror this realization with regards to everything else in the future.
As for telecom, the US has some of the most uncoordinated worst networks in the world. It is funny to see them lambast anyone when standards and reception are so poor, they restrict competition by not requiring everyone offer unlocked phones, and only recently let you keep your old number when switching carriers. There is favoritism and corruption even in the US, especially in military contracting where they restrict and ban foreign competition. So even the US has a ways to go in learning about global competition. In the meantime, they will continue to get ripped off by their own no compete or restricted military contractors like Haliburton.
It would be nice if the author explained why such a high PE is justified and how it will grow revenue. If penetration is already this developed in China then isn't the growth story already factored in and is the saturation story accounted for? The thing about social networking is where is the monetization and will its monetization in the end take away or doom the media? Do no evil is not the mantra for social networking. Profit off the user seems to be and may inevitably dissuede people from trusting it. It only takes a few bad incidents to change public opinion on a rising trend.
I certainly hope social media is able tyo reign in its desire for revenue at the cost of its users but I'm seriously skeptical, especially with Facebook leading the pack. I see no morals values in the company.
Here's How to Take 20 Years to Build a Retirement Fund That Lasts Forever [View article]
A few things:
1) Borrowing to invest is not good since often the interest exceeds the profit and you incur risk.
2) "After a full year of investing you will add $5,000. Do not forget to increase your contributions by 3% every year to meet inflation. This should not be too hard as your wages will hopefully increase by inflation levels as well.", The simple fact is that although sometimes your wages rise, most people's wages don't even keep up with inflation. Thus, Americans have been getting a lower and lower standard of living the last 2 decades.
3) Constant stock market gains are a fantasy. If you want a retirement fund that lasts forever I suggest not going all stock. Of course not going all stock makes it even more impossible to generate 14% + gains. Claiming Buffet can beat 14% consistently is not a good argument. 90% of all fund managers can't achieve this.
4) People for the most part should not play options and often any hedging done by them takes into account a premium + time premium so your hedge costs more than the positive value. If it were otherwise no one would write the contracts.
5) The fist rule of making your money last forever is not losing it! That means buying safe investments that can cover in most cases stock losses.
6) You must beat inflation and taxes. And if you want to tap out of it make more than you remove too.
7) Thankfully we aren't all vampires (maybe there are some haha.) There is no need to build a retirement fund that lasts forever. If you save $1 million and invest somewhat wisely you can usually happily tap your $50,000 until you die without running out of $ unless you're around the age of Justin Beiber.
Please talk to a real advisor before planning for retirement...
Baidu Rockets Higher On New Smartphone [View article]
Baidu: The Google, Netflix, iPhone, Priceline And Facebook Of China [View article]
Top China Technology Picks By The World's Largest Fund Managers [View article]
China Unicom is the only real one of these I'd feel safe parking money. The rest is a casino bet with no idea how viable they will be long term. Baidu was worth considering but their valuation is not a safe bet.
Dangdang: Like Rolling Back Time To Buy Amazon At $6 [View article]
The author is right in the respect online sales potential in China is huge for the one that does hit it right.
Horrid Action In Chinese Stocks, Even Baidu [View article]
The Chinese bad accounting scare should not be the root of strong stable Chinese companies. However, if you want to be scared of bad accounting you need only look at US banks. You couldn't tell if a TBTF bank was about to go bankrupt tomorrow with the liberal accounting rules we dish out to banks these days. Perhaps that's the reason BAC is under so much pressure. Bank accounting proves nothing because banks want rules that allow them to hide losses and estimate them themselves without a accounting basis to refute them. This is just as bad as any terrible accounting in China or anywhere else in the world. The US should be ashamed.
5 Growth Stocks That Could Supercharge Your Portfolio [View article]
Why Gold Is Going To $2,000 An Ounce By The End Of September [View article]
Strangely, the weaker the economy gets the more chances of more stimulus and QE along with greater chances that the US will reach its deficit ceiling before the election due to weak revenues. Expect a lot more fighting and government incompetence that will potentially make things even worse. Pity America.
After-Hours: Going Long on Baidu, Shorting Broadcom and Netflix [View article]
Sina: Investors Should Be Cautiously Optimistic [View article]
If you wish to invest in Asia I would do so to explore RE options, tap their new gas exploration, or invest in their long in the tooth manufacturing. My motto usually is only invest overseas in unique opportunities that country is well known for already or resources specific to that country. China is not known for social media, mainly due to restrictive curbs on free speech (they certainly have the population to support it).
6 Stocks for Smart China Investors to Consider [View article]
When to Move From High-Fliers to High Quality Stocks [View article]
Did a Lunchtime Margin Selling Capitulation Put in the Bottom for This Pullback? [View article]
Looking at call volume, there is a lot of action at the stock price showing a lot of hedging is going on. We will have to see about the margin closing theory later. If I was long NFLX I'd be worried and certainly if I was margined I would worry more. However, with its goiant run up I don't see margin calls playing any roll anytime soon unless it drops below $150. I'm sort Netflix as of Tuesday.
China Needs to Focus on 'Soft Power' to Keep Foreign Investment [View article]
As for soft power, the author is right that China has always been overply protectionist at the cost to their own consumers which is frankly preventing the flourishing of a consumer economy. This is because the powers that be think that if trade surpluses drop it will be the end of the world when in fact it is not. Ttrade surpluses will naturally drop whether they like it or not as low skilled work migrates to lower cost countries similar to what happened to Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, etc.
China needs to soften their own stance on their domestic market to survive. If China blocks competition and foreign goods it will be hard for them to realize the value of global products and appreciate their allure so they can innovate competitive new ones. China tends to be insular thinking that their own internal economy is enough, but frankly this is not so. Global competition will always cause advances to accelerate much faster than any given domestic economy. If it wants to be on top for a long time to come they must realize this and embrace globalization. Otherwise, their rise to relavance will be overshadowed by a failure to move up the value chain.
China has a right to be concerned with the US and other's hard power of trying to thrust their imports on China (beef, Qualcomm, etc.) however, blocking unthreatening competition or all competition is a very poor solution. As for the reason China is amicable to the tech industry, the reason is clear. China gets a lot more from the tech industry than they give up, and they recognize that they need to allow their people to experience technology from all over the world to stay competitive. Hopefully, they will mirror this realization with regards to everything else in the future.
As for telecom, the US has some of the most uncoordinated worst networks in the world. It is funny to see them lambast anyone when standards and reception are so poor, they restrict competition by not requiring everyone offer unlocked phones, and only recently let you keep your old number when switching carriers. There is favoritism and corruption even in the US, especially in military contracting where they restrict and ban foreign competition. So even the US has a ways to go in learning about global competition. In the meantime, they will continue to get ripped off by their own no compete or restricted military contractors like Haliburton.
Three Reasons Baidu Is a Buy [View article]
I certainly hope social media is able tyo reign in its desire for revenue at the cost of its users but I'm seriously skeptical, especially with Facebook leading the pack. I see no morals values in the company.
Here's How to Take 20 Years to Build a Retirement Fund That Lasts Forever [View article]
1) Borrowing to invest is not good since often the interest exceeds the profit and you incur risk.
2) "After a full year of investing you will add $5,000. Do not forget to increase your contributions by 3% every year to meet inflation. This should not be too hard as your wages will hopefully increase by inflation levels as well.", The simple fact is that although sometimes your wages rise, most people's wages don't even keep up with inflation. Thus, Americans have been getting a lower and lower standard of living the last 2 decades.
3) Constant stock market gains are a fantasy. If you want a retirement fund that lasts forever I suggest not going all stock. Of course not going all stock makes it even more impossible to generate 14% + gains. Claiming Buffet can beat 14% consistently is not a good argument. 90% of all fund managers can't achieve this.
4) People for the most part should not play options and often any hedging done by them takes into account a premium + time premium so your hedge costs more than the positive value. If it were otherwise no one would write the contracts.
5) The fist rule of making your money last forever is not losing it! That means buying safe investments that can cover in most cases stock losses.
6) You must beat inflation and taxes. And if you want to tap out of it make more than you remove too.
7) Thankfully we aren't all vampires (maybe there are some haha.) There is no need to build a retirement fund that lasts forever. If you save $1 million and invest somewhat wisely you can usually happily tap your $50,000 until you die without running out of $ unless you're around the age of Justin Beiber.
Please talk to a real advisor before planning for retirement...