The revolutionary internet marketplace eBay (EBAY) has made significant strides in tightening up the sales process in order to inspire trust between buyers and sellers. There is a vocal contingent of eBay users who have at one time been burned by a fraudulent transaction on the site, and while the site has in the past attempted to ensure the integrity of sales on the site, the company has taken it to the next level recently.
Buyers are now eligible for a full refund for fraudulent sales; eBay lifted the cap of $200 on transactions or $2,000 for highly rated users. Sellers who accept PayPal (eBay’s wholly-owned e-commerce processing subsidiary) get unlimited protection against reversed charges. Currently, 75% of eBay transactions are processed through PayPal, and conversely 60% of all transactions processed on PayPal are via eBay. eBay is also adding more incentives for fixed-price sales as opposed to auctions. They have improved their searching technology, making it easier than ever to match up buyers and sellers with the products they desire. Furthermore, eBay will reduce fees by 20% to its highest rated sellers as well. These are just some of the new measures that eBay is hoping will restore trust between buyers and sellers and in the process bring more successful transactions.
eBay has become a major player in internet retail, and these improvements—which will be implemented by the holiday shopping season—will put added pressure on web rivals Amazon (AMZN) and Craigslist. However, eBay is competing with more than just online retailers; eBay is second to only Wal-Mart (WMT) in the amount of retail business that it conducts. That is an amazing volume of business to conduct, with much lower overhead than Wal-Mart or other “bricks and mortar” retailers which necessitate real estate, employees, et al.
Clearly, eBay will not be able to bring in the kind of revenue of a Wal-Mart or Target (TGT), but they still take a cut of every sale with much less overhead cost. There are 1.3 million people who make a living either buying or selling items on eBay, and the site has 84 million active users. These users are effectively unpaid employees who generate revenue while costing eBay nothing.
As these recent measures demonstrate, eBay is not taking its users for granted and they are trying to address those concerns of theirs that have caused growth to slow. Ockham Research is reaffirming our Strong Buy for eBay, as the company is demonstrably undervalued compared to historical norms. For example, eBay’s price-to-sales ratio is currently 4.4 times, but the stock has traditionally traded in the range of 8.7-17.5 times revenue. Likewise, eBay’s price-to-cash flow has fluctuated between 32.3 and 62, and right now it is trading at a multiple of 14.7 times. For eBay to be selling at the low end of these historically normal valuation ranges would require the stock to be priced around $66 per share given current levels of sales and cash flow.
Furthermore, value investors should not be frightened by the P/E multiple in the low 90’s; this measure reflects an impairment charge from 3Q07 of nearly $1 billion. The P/E will give a much more accurate reflection of the stock’s valuation when that charge is replaced by 3Q08 results, and it will likely be in the low 20’s range. We think that eBay is on the correct path to restoring trust in its efficient marketplace, and we think this stock’s valuation is quite compelling. Bargain hunters will rejoice at the new security measures created to protect them in the ever evolving online marketplace, but perhaps the biggest bargain available is eBay itself.
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This article has 36 comments:
Anyone who buys this stock now is just plain nuts. I have been an ebay seller full time since 1998. But dont just listen to me, ask any ten sellers at random- you will hear the same thing.
the Wheels
feedback.ebay.com/ws/e...
I have time to audit the site; why don't the executives? Isn't this part of what they are being paid to do?
the Wheels
nd
Ebay has never enforced it's own written policies to control fraud, both on the seller side or the buyer side of any transaction. They expect their community of members to report to them. Report a violation and you're lucky they bother to read the report at all, let alone act.
Ebay has done nothing about the underlying problems that have plagued the site for years. I think the fact that they are handing out millions of coupons to buyers should pretty much tell the analysts that they have to buy the buyers and even that will only be a flash in the pan.
Do your research, trust nothing ebay tells you.
1) when eBay takes seller listing fees & then makes it IMPOSSIBLE for buyers to find the seller's item due to best match (hasn't worked from day one); and
2) eBay's requirement that sellers accept paypal worldwide in the near future to combat fraud.
Both are unconscionable acts and eBay's SPIN that sellers cause their own demise & that acceptance of paypal is a matter of safety is so unbelievable that even a low grade moron wouldn't believe it.
It is reported (but unconfirmed) that the Griff has given eBay only 2 more years of life but this author suspects it may be substantially less.
As a buyer and a seller, I am now researching other options - other sites and solo deals. Ebay is not only destroying for themselves - see how ebayLive is EMTPTY and how those executives are there prepared to lie - www.youtube.com/watch?...
The truth is that ebay is paralized with the possibilities of lawsuits and close outs in other countries, is milking you on front, end, paypal, currency transfer and bank transfer fees and is turing enterpreneurs into employers with implementations of not-possible to implement requirements. If it is my business, I should be deciding if there are returns or not - as I was the one dealing with the client. Effectivelly last week buyers ordered items, paid just to say hours later that they haven't received it. From what I understand post office is not still on that level, but it speaks for the state of the affair.
Maybe ebay was about to be prosecuted for monopolistic policies and if nobody thougth about it, they should. They keep majority of the market and they have put many out of business over night. Even though I am one of those, I am glad as such greed always results in someone else giving a better option and this effectivelly will be the end of ebay. I think it was that story of a straw that broke camel's back.
I am so glad this happens. Ebay cannot possibly demand 25% which now is how much they grab between their ebay and paypal fees. 25% is ratio of a brick and mortar, and ebay + paypal together should not get over 10%. They you would have a sound business model.
I still do not get that 'we want to be Amazon story'. You never were Amazon and we expected you to be ebay, no Amazon. What the heck. Did they buy you out? Or is ebay purposelly putting their stocks down so someone buys this Titanic?
Trying to pump up a deflated stock from a has-been company in deep, deep trouble both within and without is just sad.
They are being hit with unfavorable judgments, cold cocked by government agencies, buried under very successful competitors, failing to attract new traffic and unable to keep that which they once had.
Inside they are 'bleeding out' as their own customers (the Sellers) abandon ship for a multitude of reasons. Boiling it all down you will find the belief that eBay is no longer 'good' for their business. Their sales have dwindled, their fees have increased, the site is so glitchy there is not a day that goes by that something else 'doesn't work'. When that happens you run into one of eBay's biggest problems for it's users, they have no apparent customer service. There is no number to call, only email which brings canned cut and paste answers that are usually nonsense in broken English that do not even touch on the problem. Glitches can last for months and never even be acknowledged by eBay. Sort of like 'If I don't admit there is a problem, no one can call me on it.' Very infantile for a huge corporation. And all in the above section applies just as well to Paypal which they are attempting and failing to force on those who DO NOT want it.
Do not pay attention to the man behind the curtain pulling levers and making all the smoke billow out. Listen to those who have 'lived' inside eBay for 8, 9, 10 years and know it. Anyone who does not will sound like the writer of this article, woefully uneducated, or perhaps just dreaming.
the Wheels
I'll know that Ebay cares when every member is afforded the same level of service.
Is my money not as green?
Customer service is a tool that helps to build a customer base. It is up to a company to prove their worthiness to me; not the other way around.
The last time that I experianced such mediocre business practices was a few months before MCI went belly up. There are reasons and underlying causes behind such levels of mediocraty. I say let it play out. Ebay will either get it right or eventually crap out just like MCI and Enron before them.
Policies need to be fair for all users or dischord will continue. Why if Ebay is doing so well, does the stock hover in the 20's?
If Ebay is doing so well by its members, why do the comments left after any article that allows them tend to be of negative oppinion?
Why haven't any of these reporting bodies become curious enough to do further investigation?
Has our society become that jaded?
the Wheels
If Ebay is poised toward greatness, why has Meg sold close to $40.000,000 of her shares?
She was still onboard when the policy changes were developed and put into play.
the Wheels
The seller fears are very real.
feedback.ebay.com/ws/e...
Baiano
Truth
t
Also fees at Amazon is more expensive than eBay, however ebay has listing fees and Amazon has none.
I do not undestand why people are so -ve on eBay and positive on all others when no one provide a real advantage.
The real story was at ebay live www.youtube.com/watch?... . Please do research before you publish nonsense.
Since January 2008, the following changes have been made or are announced as coming changes soon (this list is directly from eBay announcements):
1. SMI - hidden bidder ID's
2. Increased cost for successful sale
3. Feedback changes, only positive for buyers, buyers can leave full range of feedback
4. Ebay using DSR/feedback opinions to rank search position
5. Ebay using DSR/feedback to determine paypal holds
6. Ebay using DSR/feedback percentage to determine forced
paypal use (Safer Payments program)
7. Best Match - placement tied to DSR ratings
8. PowerSeller changes/discounts/crit...
9. Chargeback protection to Powersellers (enrolled, now)
10. Chargeback protection for all (to be instituted at a later date)
11. Rolling 12 month feedback/30 day feedback DSR's (only the past 30 days count in figuring discounts and privileges)
12. Seller Dashboard (first only for PS, then all with 10 DSR or greater)
13. Repeat Feedback credit
14. Delay in feedback for powerseller customers only (buyers can not leave negative or neutral feedback for powersellers for 7 days after sale)
15. Unconfirmed address protection for PS (enrolled, now)
16. Unconfirmed address protection for all (at a later date)
17. Digital media eliminated (ebooks, web templates, etc)
18. Item specifics changes in category listing forms
19. Fees for international site visibility instituted
20. Shipping costs added to Best Match search visibility(March 2008)
21. Required stated shipping costs being phased in (July required)
22. Feedback protections for sellers when filing UPI
23. Stock photos in categories
24. My Ebay changes
25. Free shipping icon available
26. Live Auction format will end
27. Verifying sellers to specific computers when listing
28. Facebook feed of ebay auctions option
29. Best Match made the default search
30. Selling Manager subscribers have added options for relists
31. ProStores 9.0 intro
32. Updates to options when using ebay picture hosting
33. Neutral feedback = full negative in determining feedback score
34. Choice listing changed to allow color, size in one listing
35. Multiple listing limit lifted with caveat that same seller multiples limited to 10 per page unless only one seller offers the item, then it is unlimited per page.
36. Prohibiting mystery auctions.
37. Links policy changes (must remove any offsite links) (July)
38. 4.7 or higher in all DSR's get better search ranking
39. Paypal Pay Later introduced through ebay checkout
40. Finding Playground beta testing ongoing, will release new changes May/June as a result
41. Free shipping for calculated listings available
42. Freight quote calculator can be added to listings
43. New item page view layout
44. Lowered limit to 3 DSR for Best Match search results
45. Anonymous email forwarding (all email addresses must be removed from listings and templates)
46. Specified item condition, return policy, handling time required in listings.
47. Diamond Tier PS discount 20%/negotiate fees (minimum requirements of DSR's, feedback and 50,000 items per month sold or $500,000 in sales per month)
48. A quick "listing update" checklist, to make it easier to follow new listing requirements
49. PS UPS shipping discount of 23% ground rates (requires enrollment)
50. Reduce listing, increase FVF pricing more changes toward holiday season.
51. Direct phone support for buyers only (sellers still get canned cut and paste email replies)
52. Coupons for best buyers program spring and holiday season
53. POSSIBLE CHANGE is allowing buyers to remove feedback they left for sellers, still being discussed, goal is to address this by the holiday season.
54. Coming soon, prefilled item specifics in certain categories
55. New hub for pre-owned GM and Chrysler used car dealership listings.
56. Edit shipping details for multiple purchases
57. Increase watch list to 200 items
58. Blocked bidder list grown from 1000 to 5000
59. Flash, video and other active media must be removed from listings and templates
60. No more 3rd party checkout
61. 2% or higher customer dissatisfaction lowers search standing.
And I am sure a few have been missed. Thanks Nancy for putting this together for we who are having trouble keeping up.
Truth
I sell on both sites and have done so for years. The differences?
Ebay now treats me like a criminal on temporary parole in spite of the fact I am a Powerseller with an excellent rating. Amazon treats me just like everyone else on the site-FAIRLY.
Ebay has ZERO seller support. Got a question? Forget about it. You will either get a canned irrelevant response, or no answer at all. I've used PS seller support which is marginally better. Amazon's Seller Support is actual people located in the USA. I have never left a call feeling dissatisfied.
Ebay/Paypal's handling of claims: Arbitrary and capricious. Even the rules between Paypal and Ebay are inconsistent. Generally if you are a seller? Bend over. Amazon's Alliance / A to z claims? They rake you over the coals, but are fair. And all I ask for is fair. With Amazon they will generally accept delivery confirmation to deny an A to z claim for an item not received. Paypal will NOT.
Overall, Amazon's execs have NEVER said the bonehead insulting drivel Ebay's execs have: Who can forget Ebay Exec Jose getting snagged and spanked on the auctionbytes blog for making nasty personal comments about the bloggers? How about comparing other payment methods to heroin? How about Griff saying Ebay was in imminent danger of not existing in two years (HIS last week words, not mine). Worse, how about dismissing sellers as mere "noise" and calling buyers "the Walmart crowd". It goes on and on. How about showing baby pictures and pictures of your pets at a major keynote address at Ebay Live? Yeah, thats professional. Their lack of communication before hoisting their changes on the site and their arrogant, cavalier treatment has left EVERYONE with a bad taste in their mouth. THATS why people are sick of Ebay. Right now Darth Vader and the Death Star have a better reputation.
So sorry to thwart your insinuations about Amazon. I actually LIKE Ebay, but really, there is NO comparison between the 2 companies no matter how desperately ebay tries to be Amazon. I hope Ebay gets their act together, but they can't do it without their medium to smaller sellers (who probably buy more than they sell). They need to do a better job communicating with sellers, and win us back. If not, you'll be seeing vitriol wherever and whenever Ebay is mentioned. And Bad word of mouth will eventually be a business killer, no matt how big one is.
As an investor...the eBay business model is hard to grasp. The exception is acquired PayPal operation.
As a user...one needs to be very, very careful in those eBay auctions (or “Buy It Now” for that matter). Sellers typically grab the buyer on S & H charges, and the frequent online buyer can typically find better deals direct from reliable sources. I have notified several eBay sellers that new products can be purchased for considerably less direct from branded retailers like Sears, WalMart, etc.
I’m personally chilly on eBay…very cautious in all related owner or user transactions.
Brute!
Excellent postings to both. Comprehensive and easy to comprehend.
Thank you, thank you for great articulation.
Dream On: Great timeline visual! Whew! Insanity!
The site will be improved without them.
Ebay does not conduct any retail business at all, in fact it claims to be merely a venue; the business is conducted by the sellers using the site. Ebay is competing with other online sites for the business of sellers and its success or failure will depend on how well or otherwise it does this, and the signs don't look too promising. If the writer cannot even understand this, what value can you put on the rest of his piece?
eBay have failed to hold onto their core business - they want to be somebody else(Amazon?) instead of doing what they do well. Most importantly, they have failed to realise who are their customers. The sellers are eBay's customers. The buyers are the sellers' customers. eBay have to keep their customers happy not mine - I'll deal with mine!
the Wheels
forums.ebay.com/db2/th...
man
Ebay is a very risky investment right now; unless someone has the means of buying up the majority shares.
Ebay has placed itself in a position to be sued and on an plethora of issues.
Imagine it.
1. Ebay has always claimed they were a "middle man", therefore not responsible for what sellers do or say. But now, ebay is interferring with the feedback process. They have removed negative feedback, which now seems to qualify them for being responsible, and no longer allows them to hide behind the "middle man only" argument.
2. Ebay and/or PayPal is already being sued for not honoring their buyer protection when not paying by credit card. A settlement offer of 3.5 million is being considered.
3. Will ebay be sued for accepting fees on multiple listings, but, not displaying all of them?
4. Will ebay get sued again for holding payments. They already had a $10 million settlement.
5. Will ebay be held liable for forseeing the potential for being extorted, and allowing it?
6. Ebay is being held liable for counterfeit items sold on their sites. They lost a case in France, and won one in NY. How many more cases will be made against ebay?
7. Ebay has made a backdoor deal with Buy.com; you can see the details here: www.youtube.com/watch?...
These numbers were taken from Terapeak and are based on a 90 day history (March 2, 2008-May 31, 2008. The most current info at the time of publishing):
Seller: Buy (Buy.com)
Dates: March 2, 2008-May 31, 2008
Total Items Listed: 2,708,987
Total sales: $3,924,907
Successful listings: 64,638
Total Items Offered: 249,431,285
Sell through rate: 2.39%
Average Sale: $44.43
MINIMUM listing fee, including dutch auctions: $24,943,128.50 (Based on the lowest fee of .10 per listing, and offering Media Mail. Does not include higher listing fees, or other promotional listing fees, or Final Value Fees, which would increase the fees dramnatically).
I am looking to see if these actions are a violation of The Sherman Act. It sure seems like it applies.
I'm sorry, OP, I just don't see how ebay is all that great a bargain. Ebay has managed to alienate it's customer base, and although boycotts are not new to ebay and it's young history, i have never seen ebay boycotted by the community twice in one year, and never to the point where many would be willing to boycott ebay in an open-ended boycott, as they are doing currently, and have been since (officially) May 1st, and some as far back as Feb.
As they say with any bargain, you get what you pay for.
Tim
myspace.com/boycotteba...