Will Yahoo Settle? Fast Money Recap (5/28/08)

Recap of CNBC's Fast Money, Wednesday May 28.

Oil Rebounds: AMR (AMR), UAL (UAUA), Alpah Natural Resources (ANR), Consol Energy (CNX), Massey (MEE), Eastman Chemical (EMN), Sasol (SSL), First Solar (FSLR), Energy Conversion Deviced (ENER)

Macke said Nigerian rebels were a convenient excuse for oil to go higher, and that the upward trend will last. Guy Adami likes AMR and noted there is talk of a deal between UAL and U.S. Airways. Macke would sell the airline rally and Pete Najarian says oil will have to drop before airlines recover. Pete Najarian is bullish on natural gas and coal and likes ANR, CNX, MEE, EMN and SSL. Even though Germany has discussed cutting aid to solar, Najarian says FSLR and ENER look strong.

How Now, Dow: Dow Chemical (DOW), DuPont (DD)

Dow Chemical announced it is raising prices 20% as raw materials rise. Najarian says he likes DD which has solar and agriculture exposure and is diversified. Adami would buy DD with a stop out below $46.75.

Falling Financials: AIG (AIG), Citigroup (C), Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF), Lehman Brothers (LEH), Bank of America (BAC), Legg Mason (LM)

In spite of a $20 billion capital raising, AIG fell to a 10 year low, and Citigroup sliced the target price. Karen Finerman has given up on AIG and prefers C or XLF. Najarian discussed heavy put action in XLF, LEH, BAC and LM. Macke would buy financials on a big-volume day.

Playing Polo: Ralph Lauren (RL), UPS (UPS)

Ralph Lauren popped and Macke says this is based on low expectations. He emphasizes retail is a trade. Finerman cashed in on the rally and observed men’s clothing has been faring better than women’s apparel, but can’t account for the trend. Adami would consider UPS if energy prices become more stable.

Icahn Ups Dose of Amylin (AMLN)

Carl Icahn purchased more shares of AMLN, upping his stake to 6.5%, and Najarian is bullish and is confident Icahn will turn the company around.

Charity Begins at Home Depot (HD)

Director David Batchelder bought 3 million shares of HD. Guy Adami thinks the insider buying is a good sign and is bullish.

Wooing Yahoo: Yahoo (YHOO), Microsoft (MSFT)

There is talk that Yahoo is considering MSFT’s buyout offer and Macke is dead set against the deal. Finerman said Yang gave in after having no choice and will likely submit to MSFT’s conditions.

Southwest’s Hedges: Southwest Airlines (LUV) CEO Gary Kelly

Kelly discussed Southwest’s hedging strategies to protect itself from rising oil. He reported the company is more than 70% hedged at $50 a barrel, and predicts in 2009 55% will be hedged at $55 a barrel. He says selling its hedges is unlikely. Macke thinks LUV is best of breed but doesn’t like the sector right now. Adami says airlines can be played as trading vehicles and Najarian said there is greater upside potential in airlines that have been feeling pain.

Subprime Going Local: KeyCorp (KEY), USBancorp (USB)

On KeyCorp’s 12% drop after underestimating bad loans, the group wondered if regional banks are going to suffer from subprime paper. Finerman said many of these banks moved into construction loan exposure, which was not a good strategy. Adami would buy USB when housing recovers, and likes its 5% dividend. Najarian disagrees and doesn’t see a significant upside in USB.

Saved by the Dell: Dell (DELL), Corning (GLW), Apple (AAPL), Akamai (AKAM)

On the one hand, many expect an upside in Dell after job cuts and international expansion. However, the company has been hit with recent allegations of fraud and false advertising. Susquehanna Financial Market Strategist Stacey Gilbert thinks the stock could go 7% in either direction after its report, but predicts a rise. However, she prefers GLW and AAPL. Najarian added AKAM to the list.

Curing Cancer: ImClone (IMCL), Genentech (DNA), Eli Lilly (LLY), Celgene (CELG), OSI Pharmaceuticals (OSIP), Elan (ELN), Biogen (BIIB)

The American Society of Clinical Oncology meeting this weekend will focus on lung cancer, and CNBC Pharmaceuticals Reporter Mike Huckman expects to hear news from IMCL and from LLY about its Alimta drug. DNA also has a lung cancer treatment, and is expected to make an announcement about its breast cancer drug. CELG is also worth looking at, but its stock already jumped on a report two weeks ago. Other biotechs of interest include: OSIP, ELN and BIIB.

Trader Radar: JetBlue (JBLU) traded on extraordinary volume on Wednesday.

Iraqi Oil: Baker Hughes (BHI), Halliburton (HAL), U.S. Oil Fund (USO), Jacobs Engineering (JEC), Fluor (FLR)

Retired General Barry McCaffrey discussed the possibility of seeing Iraqi oil on the market if the country passes a hydrocarbon sharing law and holds provincial elections. He predicts in 5 years, the country will be able to export oil. Najarian would trade the news with BHI and HAL, while Finerman would buy USO puts against long positions in oil services. Adami likes JEC and FLR.

Inflation Safe Haven: Perdigao (PDA), UniBanco (UBB), Sadia (SDA)

Timothy Seymour discussed the problem of inflation spreading throughout emerging markets, and would look to Brazil as a save haven from inflation, since the currency is up 20% and the banks have real rates. He would play Brazil with PDA, UBB and SDA.

Final Trade: Macke: Sell Yahoo, Adami: Celgene, Finerman: WellPoint (WPT), Najarian: Amylin

Seeking Alpha is not affiliated with CNBC, or Fast Money

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Comments

[David White]

It does look like FSLR is puting in a short term base this morning. Technically it looks like it could move higher soon as this base is very near the bottom Bollinger band. This might be a good buy point.

[David White]

Also I looked at the TAN (a fairly broad solar ETF). It looks like solar is reaching its support level. Solar had a big run up recently. It has generally been retreating since. The retreat may be nearing its end???? This may depend on where the price of oil goes. However, the TAN support level is overall encouraging for a near term move up in FSLR.

[David White]

I probably should have mentioned that the recent run up in solar was largely due to a great earnings being reported by virtually all of the solar companies. Since this run up has now virtually disappeared, one might think there would be a bounce back up. The great earnings were after all very real.

[David White]

Some solar stocks have been downgraded recently due to increased competition. Merrill Lynch kept FSLR at buy even though it is exposed to the "possible" legislative cut in Germany's solar subsidy. This also would bode well for a bounce from this level. Perhaps all this bad news has this solar stock (and others) down in the dumps for the moment. Sentiment can change quickly. Germany is now worried about the cost of their solar subisdy. However, when they balance it against the eventual cost of not having it (i.e. buying oil or uranium instead as they rise in future years), Germany may decide the solar subsidy costs are going to be cheap by comparison. This is without even taking into account the Kyoto concerns, which solar also addresses.

[David White]

Currently the average target price for FSLR is $330.

[David White]

STP did not go down on just the Germany news. It had another reason. It just issued $500,000,000 worth of convertible notes. This effectively dilutes the stock value. Natuarally it would go down (at least temporarily).

[David White]

Apparently a finance firm Kaufman Bros., with no previous experience in the solar arena, published ratings on 6 stocks in this arena. Notably they gave SPWR (P/E approx. 300 on Yahoo) a buy and SFLR a hold (P/E approx. 100 on Yahoo). Seems questionable to me since FSLR has historically outstripped SPWR in growth and consistently good earnings reports. FSLR may be getting more competition, but so is everyone else. If SPWR is a buy, I would think you would have to consider FSLR a buy also. Yahoo states its actual analyst average rating is 2.2 (a buy).

[Brewer]

I hope MSFT does go in debt to buy Yahoo. As if MS didn't already have their own failed search division, and failed internet division.

Expect a sucker punch from Apple about that time. Apple has in it's skunkworks, a dumbed down version of OS X that runs on any generic PC. It has far more going for it than any version of windows, still leaves a reason to buy a real macintosh, but could totally destroy MS's marketshare within months. Microsoft still has the toy business to fall back on with the Xbox line.